California Capitol Week  Election preview 11/3/00

 

((Jack)) Just ahead  . . . in-depth information you need before you vote. The stakes are high and California voters could tilt the balance of power in Washington. From the presidency to the make-up of Congress . . .We’ll break down the tight races.

 

((Melissa)) Plus, polls show Al Gore could be vulnerable in California . . .will this man make the difference… …And voter beware . . . a multi-million dollar political ad blitz is underway . . .  what is the truth behind ads like these? You have questions and we’ve got answers.

Hello I’m Melissa Crowley.

 

((Jack)) And I’m Jack Kavanagh. Election news that you can use, next.

 

((Jack)) Thanks for joining us, I’m Jack Kavanagh. A record number of Californians are registered to vote next Tuesday and the Secretary of State hopes for a turnout of 80 percent. We’ll walk you through the ballot with a look at races. And later . . . fact versus fiction in this year’s round of political advertising. But we begin at the top of the ticket, where national polls show the presidential candidates in a tight race, with Bush slightly ahead. Vice President Al Gore is facing an unexpectedly tight race here in California State polls show Gore up anywhere from 5 to 9 points. In recent weeks, support for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader has doubled to 6 points in California.

 

 

(( Jack )) This week Bush and Gore made a final push in the golden state.  Bush’s 10^th trip included a visit on the “Tonight Show” with Jay Leno.  Gore 73rd trip also included a stop on the late night television circuit… Governor Gray Davis has been campaigning for Gore all week throughout California.  President Clinton joined Davis Thursday in California. Joining us now, Linda Gledhill of the San Francisco Chronicle and Dan Borenstein of the Contra Costa Times.

 

DISCUSSION ON CLOSE FEDERAL AND NATIONAL RACES

 

((Jack)) Linda, where are we going on this?  What’s the sense of what’s going on now?  There’s a field poll out today that indicates Al Gore’s lead in California is shrinking.  Is that the direction it’s going?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Well, obviously Al Gore’s lead has shrunk since he first started in this state a year ago, but he still has a fairly comfortable margin, Ralph Nader’s support seems to have steadied out, and I think that the Bush supporters aren’t planning on carrying the state, but they’re hoping to make it close enough that congressional races will fall their way.

 

((Jack)) What about Nader?  Is a flash in the pan?  Is that all over now or what?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) No, I don’t think—he’s certainly not a flash in the pan when you look across the state.  You look at states like, for example, Minnesota—

 

((Jack)) Like Wisconsin, for example.  Madison, Wisconsin; places like that.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Elsewhere in the state, elsewhere in the country, he could really make a significant difference if this thing got really close in a few key swing states.  He could swing it to Bush.  I don’t think there’s any question about that.

 

((Jack)) Is there an assumption then, should we stipulate that, though it’ll be close, Gore will pull out California?  Because without California, Gore doesn’t win anything.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Let me put it this way: if he loses California, we will have known that because it will have been such a horrible night for the Democrats to begin with, that we will have seen that back in Pennsylvania and Florida and some of the other key states.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) It would have been a sweep across the country.

 

((Jack)) So, what’s George Bush doing here this close to the election?  Was it to put some support behind congressional candidates?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Absolutely.  The Republicans the past two elections have given up on California.  That was a big criticism back in ’96.  The Bush campaign didn’t want to be seen as doing that again.  They said they wouldn’t.  They’ve come back many times.  In part though, I think, to keep those congressional races close.  The Republicans want desperately to hold onto control of congress, and this is there way to do it.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) But there’s an interesting thing.  Both the candidates this week came to town, and they came to town ostensibly to campaign in California, but what’s the one thing they both had in common?  They both did late night, national TV.  There’s this sort of interesting thing.  The final debate was held on sequential nights, if you will, on the Jay Leno Show, right?  This, I think, tells us a little bit about what this whole electoral process is about.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) And appropriately so on Halloween.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) On Halloween, right.

 

((Jack)) The control of Congress is at stake as well as the Presidency.  Let’s take a look at some of these hot races.  I’d like to focus South to North if we could.  I’d like to start off in San Diego: Brian Bilbray and Susan Kennedy [sic]—

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Susan Davis.

 

((Jack)) Susan Davis.  That’s the second time I’ve said that.  I’m sorry, Susan Davis.  Why is this such a tight race?  Is it just because that district is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans?  Is it a Centrist area?  What is it?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) It’s a combination of things.  It’s certainly a centrist area, and, I think this year you have one of those things where it’s a wildcard.  You had electricity rate quadruple over the summer.  People are upset about it, they’re blaming it on the incumbents, and, in that case, that’s Susan Davis.

 

((Jack)) Did she vote for it [power deregulation]?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) She wasn’t in office at the time, but she has tried to get some remedies over the past few months, and it’s a question of whether people are going to blame her for it.

 

((Jack)) And Bilbray, of course, was in Congress, so he would not have voted for something like that, so he’s clean on that particular issue.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) He’s clean on it, though it has been an issue.  Over the course of the race, Susan Davis has tried to say that Bilbray didn’t do enough federally to bring relief to rate payers.

 

((Jack)) Is it a one issue race do you think?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Well, think about some of the issues that started this.  Why are the Democrats going after the Bilbrays and the Rogans.  One, because these are narrow, swing districts where the Democrats have a slight lead, and they feel that they should have these districts, and, two, it goes back to, you know, there are certain people when you think about the impeachment vote where this is their attempt at payback time.

 

((Jack)) Okay, so they’re easy to target?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) They’re easy to target.  They’re seats that can be picked off.

 

((Jack)) All right.  Dan mentioned Rogan and Schiff, which is the 27^th district, I believe.  Everything that I’ve read about that district indicates that it’s changed character.  It’s more Democratic now than it was before, and, of course, Jim Rogan was one of the masters in the impeachment thing, so is that a double whammy, Lynda?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Well, it’s been a target ever since Jim Rogan came out for the impeachment.  Democrats targeted it.  They’ve got a strong candidate in state Senator Adam Schiff who’s a moderate, he’s built up a fairly impressive legislative record.  I mean, ten million dollars being spent in that district.  It’s one of those ones, as Dan said, that people are going after.  They expect it to be a key race.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) By the numbers, the Democrats, of most of these that we’re going to talk about, this is one where the Democrats feel that they should have this seat by the numbers.

 

((Jack)) And that’s why I saw all those Rogan signs at the Bush rally in that area, and that was the reason for Bush to come in?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Yeah, that was a key reason for Bush to come into that area and into LA in general, and that’s a key reason why Bush is advertising in the LA media market.  It’s because you hit two key races in the LA media market, Rogan being one of them and then the Harman Kuykendall race being the other.

 

((Jack)) Interesting that you mention that.  That’s the 36^th congressional district.  Jane Harman, as we know, was the candidate for Governor the last time around, who actually did very, very well at the beginning of her candidacy and then in the primary, and then was basically taken apart in small pieces by Al Checci and all his money, and she’s now trying to recapture her seat.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) She’s trying to get her old seat back, and this was always a very close seat to begin with.  Back at the time that she ran for Governor if you recall, there was this question about whether she was running for Governor because it was easier than running for reelection in what was a very tight seat then.  It’s a very tight district.  It’s a swing district.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) And it’s amazing that you talk to people down there, and they don’t know who the incumbent is because she served three terms and you have Kuykendall who has only been in—

 

((Jack)) Second, this is his second time around.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Right.  The second, which most people say for house members is the hardest one ever because the first one you get in, the second you have to prove yourself.  You’ve only been in for two years.  It’s a very difficult hurdle to overcome.

 

((Jack)) Interesting that the Los Angeles times, when they did their endorsements, they endorsed Kuykendall and not Harman.  I was kind of expecting it to go the other way.  Does that tell you anything about how much of a toss-up that district is?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) I think it’s definitely a toss-up, and, you know, in those cases endorsements can make a difference.

 

((Jack)) Okay, let’s move a little further up the state to the 20^th district, which is Fresno and Bakersfield.  Cal Dooley, top Republican target in California, and former newscaster Rich Rodriguez is running there, and that is another case where George Bush came to town to do some campaigning on behalf of Rodriguez.  I wonder if that is a play for the large, emerging Latino vote which goes in either direction?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) This is a really interesting race when you think about it because unlike the other races that we're talking about, this one has a huge Democratic advantage in registration by the numbers.  This is one that shouldn’t by all rational reason be in play, but what you have is a combination of the interesting farm politics of the valley in play and Dooley being attacked about whether he’s pro-farmer enough, and, by the way, Cal Dooley is not one of your off-the-left liberals.  This is a guy who is Democratic Leadership Council, centrist Democrat type, but you have a television newscaster with a high name ID.  It’s not too often that you can bring a challenger cold off the bench and have him have high name ID, but, Jack, if you want to run for office, you’re prepping yourself.

 

((Jack)) What do you think?  Ronald Reagan tried it.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Hey, there’s a long history of that in California.

 

((Jack)) Is that what works, though?  Once you get big name ID in an area, does that bring you fifty percent down the road immediately?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Well, in California, where campaigning is so hard because districts are spread over such a large area, TV is the best way of getting name recognition.  What’s better than having a TV anchor run for office?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Yeah, how could you buy that thirty minute spot every night for seven years?

 

((Jack)) Okay, let’s continue up the state in Silicon Valley, where Mike Honda and Jim Cuneen are competing for the seat that was…

 

((Lynda & Dan)) Tom Campbell’s.

 

((Jack)) Yes.  Diane Feinstein’s opponent for the US Senate.  Tom Campbell is giving up his seat.  This has always been a toss-up area.  Tom Campbell himself has always been a very centrist, moderate Republican.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Democrat seat by the numbers.  Again, a seat that the Democrats feel they should have but a district that is very fickle, very fickle historically.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) The Silicon Valley has shown no loyalty to either party, and the Republican candidate, Jim Cuneen worked in the high-tech industry.  He has a lot of support from the high-tech leaders, but at the same time, they have started hedging their bets, so…

 

((Jack)) Has Mike Honda been the kind of a person who has always wanted to be in Congress, or is he someone who had to get—

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) He was called by President Clinton and asked to run because he was wavering, and they knew they needed a strong Democrat, and they wanted to win that seat, and Clinton is there on Friday to campaign for him.

 

((Jack)) It’s like a script out of The West Wing.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) You know, there’s a real interesting dynamic that’s going on when you think about this for a second.  Clinton is doing ads for Honda in the Bay Area—

 

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) And phone calls.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) And phone calls, and he’s been very out there for Honda there, but conversely, down in Southern California, down in San Diego, Susan Davis wants nothing to do with him.  Apparently, there’s this calculation that in certain districts Clinton helps and in other areas that he doesn’t.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) Sort of what Al Gore’s been facing for the past year.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Exactly.

 

((Jack)) When you mention Bill Clinton, you’ve got to talk about money, and one of the most expensive races in the state Senate, of course, is the Torlakson and Rainey race.  Record amount.  What is it up to now?

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) Here’s the deal.  It’s up to six million dollars.  It’s not yet the record for a state senate race.  That was set a few years ago in the Chesborough race where they hit 7.3 [million] I believe is what it was.  It’s clearly the most expensive senate race that the East San Francisco Bay area has ever seen and the most expensive legislative race.  People are being inundated by mail.  You’ve got two fairly well liked, fairly well established politicians who’ve been around a long time, both trying to run as centrist candidates, both grabbing for that center, but both pretty much hardcore party line voters.

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) And I think this is something we’re going to see more of with term limits closing in on Sacramento.  There are going to be more and more races of popular politicians who people like running against each other for the same seat because there’s nowhere else to go.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) This race would not exist were it not for term limits.

 

((Jack)) I should bring up the Feinstein/Campbell race.  Is there any question that Diane Feinstein is going to win that one?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) I think she’s got it in the bag.

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) It would take something very major.  If Minnesota were going down the tubes, if it were a really bad night for the Democrats, then this thing might sort of be in play.

 

((Jack)) All right, so that’s the clue.  Watch the East Coast because if there is a problem for Democrats in places like Pennsylvania, that could be a precursor—

 

((Dan Borenstein, Contra Costa Times)) In terms of the Senate race, it’s highly unlikely.

 

((Jack)) What’s the last word on this, Lynda?  Vote right and vote often as they used to say in Chicago?  Do you actually expect to see this huge voter turnout, maybe eighty percent, seventy-six percent?

 

((Lynda Gledhill, San Francisco Chronicle)) You know, it’s the most competitive race in forty years.  I’ve never seen a race this close.  It might inspire people to come out and give it a shot.  Vote.

 

END DISCUSSION

 

((Jack)) Linda and Dan thank you.

 

Later, in the program we’ll tell you where to go to find the best election resources.

Right now, a look at election 2000 on the airwaves, Melissa ?

 

POLITICAL AD DISCUSSION

 

((Melissa)) Thanks Jack. Millions are being spent to get your vote.

So far, according to the University of Wisconsin, the Bush/Cheney campaign has spent more than 19.5 million on TV ads since the primaries,

Gore 2000 almost 14 million. The Gore campaign is holding off on running any ads in this state.

Instead the Democratic National party is helping fund ads for other tight races.

Let’s take a look at ‘Trust”, a new  ad running in California from the Bush/Cheney 2000 campaign

 

 

((Melissa)) Joining me now is long time political analyst and former political reporter Steve Swatt, also with NCG, PN.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Glad to be here.

 

((Melissa)) Steve, is the Bush campaign taking a risk to spend all this money here in California or is it a risk well spent?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, I think that the Bush campaign is taking a risk spending six million dollars on his campaign here in California, but I think the Gore campaign is taking a risk not spending any money.  It’s very difficult sometimes to be missing in California, but you have to remember that the Presidential race is really a chess match.  You have fifty states, you have the District of Columbia, they add up to 538 electoral votes, you need 270 to be the next President, and so you need to husband your resources, marshal your resources where they’ll do the most good.  The Gore campaign obviously feels it can win California without a big TV blitz, and therefore it’s taking it’s money and putting it into Michigan and Florida, where the races are even tighter.

 

((Melissa)) So that may explain why some people are saying, “Where is Gore in California, and why haven’t we seen any ads?”

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) That’s absolutely true.  Right now, at this stage in the campaign, Gore and Bush are running ads in twenty-two separate states.  California is not in play according to the Gore campaign because the polls have always shown that he’s going to win California.  Yes, it’s tightening.  The latest surveys show a, perhaps, seven percent lead for Al Gore.  I’ve seen one internal Republican poll that has it as close to five percent, but still, five percent is a lot to make up in the last five days of a campaign.

 

((Melissa)) How much do you think the Bush Campaign spending money in this state will help other races?  I know they’re trying to sway some of the congressional races for a Republican win.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well that’s always been a major concern for the Republican party in California because as everyone knows, in 1992 his father, George Bush, abandoned California and the Republicans lost some of the “down ticket” items.  You know, races for Congress and the legislature, and so it does help reenergize the Republicans when Bush comes out here, when there are a lot of ads on his behalf, and if it gets Republicans to the polls, it might help elect one more member of Congress—

 

((Melissa)) How about this “trust” message, Steve?  Would you have gone with that in the final few days of the campaign?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Actually, I think it’s very interesting.  I’ve always felt that the most effective ads are the candidate talking one on one to the viewer and the voter, and that Bush ad does do that.  What’s interesting is he uses the word “personal responsibility.”  It is a not so subtle reminder that President Clinton had a problem with personal responsibility, and he uses the word “trust” five times in that ad, which I think is a code word for integrity, truthfulness, and the surveys indicate that although the public believes that the nation is going in the right direction and they approve of President Clinton’s policies, they don’t believe that he handled himself very well in the—

 

((Melissa)) The character and integrity issue.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) The character issue, and they also have some doubts about the truthfulness of Al Gore, and so that ad plays into that.

 

((Melissa)) Moving on now, vouchers is traditionally a hot-button election issue.

Proposition 38, the voucher initiative, has become one of the most expensive in history. According to the California Voter Foundation, the yes side has spent more than 19 million, the no side 15 million so far. Both sides still have more than 5 million to spend.

 

Let’s take a look at the High stakes “Yes on 38” ad.

 

((Melissa)) All right, Steve, on this ad we see a lot of issues that are big concerns: safer schools, safer streets, helping the elderly, all wrapped into one.  Any exaggerations or do you think that there’s limited time and they’re trying to really hit all those hot buttons?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Both, both.  I think there’s certainly some exaggerations, and, obviously,  in thirty seconds you can’t talk about a comprehensive measure like Proposition 38, which is really the clash of the titans.  I’ve seen some later numbers as a matter of fact, as of October 1^st, that Tim Draper, the very wealthy Silicon Valley capitalist has put in something like twenty-three and a half million dollars of his own money—

 

((Melissa)) Interesting, and you mentioned that this was perhaps helping his own political ambitions and hurting Governor Davis’ ratings?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, we’re not really sure if he does have personal political ambitions, but there is speculation that he might want to run for Governor in two years and obviously be a very well-financed, self-financed candidate.

 

((Melissa)) And this gets his name out there a little bit.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) And what he’s been doing.  What these ads have been doing is taking on Governor Davis pretty strongly.  Certainly allying himself with the California Teacher’s Association and with, allegedly, failed schools in California, and even Gary South, who is the political advisor to Governor Davis, has said that these “Yes on 38” ads have hurt Governor Davis’ approval ratings down from sixty-six percent to sixty percent, so—

 

((Melissa)) All right.  On that note, speaking of Governor Davis, we’re going to take a look at the “No on 38” ad.

 

 

((Melissa)) All right, Steve, now that we’ve seen both “yes” and “no” ads, which commercial do you think was more effective in touching voters?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, I think it depends on your point of view.  It really does.  I think that first ad, that “Yes on 38” ad, really is a scare tactic.  I mean, it’s almost like a referendum on crime reduction, and it coincides with a mail piece that the “Yes on 38” campaign has put out that has a photo of some young, teenage punk, obviously a drop-out, and the title says “lock your doors” because you’re going to be having tons of roaming, teenage punks who are high school drop-outs preying on older people, and that came in for a great deal of criticism, and there has been a great deal of criticism—

 

((Melissa)) You take a chance with those negative ads.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, and if you go too far, you lose credibility, and I think that may be a problem with the “Yes on 38.”

 

((Melissa)) Do you think that this particular one that we watched, the “No on 38,” does that stick closer to the issue?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, it certainly does stick to the issue, to the “No on 38” campaign, and I also might say that Governor is not a Johnny-come-lately on this issue.  He did play a prominent role in the “No on 174” campaign back in 1993 which was a very similar voucher issue, and he has made education his number one priority, and so I think there’s some credibility there.  Certainly, it’s a much calmer ad.  Less ominous music behind it, and I think at this late stage in the game, personal views on 38 are reinforced, and I’m not sure how many minds you’re changing on either side.

 

((Melissa)) All right, thanks Steve.  We talked about some of the players.  Governor Wilson supports that and Governor Davis.  Speaking of big players, let’s take a look at another ad.  This one involves celebrity Martin Sheen who is speaking out about Proposition 36, the drug diversion treatment ballot initiative.

 

 

((Melissa)) All right, Steve, this is a case where we’re getting a celebrity to actually speak about a ballot measure.  How much does a celebrity endorsement actually play out and translate into getting voters to go to the polls to vote for their position?

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, first of all you have to remember that every day with thousands of different messages, and this late in the campaign we’re getting bombarded with so many political messages.  The key is, if you’re a campaign manager, how do you break through the clutter?  You break through the clutter with repetition by running the same ad and getting the message out over and over and over again, you break through the clutter by having a compelling message that people will listen to, and you break through the clutter by having a compelling messenger.  That’s where the celebrity ad comes into play.  If you have a compelling messenger, someone that everybody will recognize—

 

((Melissa)) Like Martin Sheen, his family, his battle with drug problems.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) That’s right, and he’s credible in many respects.  I think, one, because his family and his son has some drug problems, but also, it’s the character he plays on television.  He plays a wise, sage, affable President of the United States.  It’s not as if he was a lead character in a inane, boxed sitcom, and so there is some credibility there.  I would also say that it doesn’t always work.

 

((Melissa)) Look at the Will and Grace for example tried to help defeat Prop 22.

 

((Steve Swatt, Political Analyst)) Well, Will and Grace, they tried to defeat Prop 22.  They were unsuccessful  Go back to 1984, Tyne Daly, star of Cagney and Lacey, she did commercials against George Deukmejiann.  He was running for reelection for Governor.  She accused him of taking money from toxic polluters.  George Deukmejian won an easy reelection victory.  Angela Lansbury in 1990 tried to convince voters to vote against Prop 140, which was the term limits.  Prop 140 won, narrowly, but it won, so it doesn’t always work.

 

END POLITICAL AD DISCUSSION

 

((Melissa)) All right, Steve.  On that note, we are out of time.  Thank you very much for joining us.

We would like to know what you think:  Does political advertising help you decide about a candidate or an issue? Do celebrities make a difference? Send us an email to capitolweek dot o-r-g or drop us a letter to the address on your screen, Jack?

 

(( Jack )) We’ve covered a lot of ground and we want to leave you with some online resources for this election. Start at our election enhanced web site at capitolweek dot o-r-g.

Click on election 2000 for an “election walk thru.” It is a step by step look at election links and resources from the top newspapers around the state. One important stop is the California online voter guide put together by the California Voter Foundation.

 

((Melissa))

Jack, next week . . . the winners and the losers in the election. What changes are in store for California?

 

((Jack)) That is our program for this week, I’m Jack Kavanagh, thanks for joining us.

 

((Melissa)) And I’m Melissa Crowley. Please take the time to vote.